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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nassaji Mazandaran
Nassaji Mazandaran
4/25/2019Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 27Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan (Ahvaz)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan37%
×Draw31%
Nassaji Mazandaran32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.05
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.95

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 105 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.89
Nassaji Mazandaran
0.83

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.07
Nassaji Mazandaran
1.21

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
68%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Nassaji Mazandaran
69%
Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran
63%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
15%
Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
65%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
28%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
9%
Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals
61%
Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals
25%
Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
54%
Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
37%
level
31%
Nassaji Mazandaran scores more
32%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Nassaji Mazandaran

Esteghlal Khuzestan and Nassaji Mazandaran drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 25, 2019.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan (Ahvaz).