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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
11/2/2018Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Ghadir Stadium (Ahvāz (Ahwaz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan42%
×Draw32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.07
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.76

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 41% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 74 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.89
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.07
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
74%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Naft Masjed Soleyman
68%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
58%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
17%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
66%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
29%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
9%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
53%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
18%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
62%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
42%
level
32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
26%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Naft Masjed Soleyman beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 2, 2018.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium (Ahvāz (Ahwaz)).