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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
3 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
4/5/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan73%
×Draw18%
Machine Sazi FC9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
2.13
Machine Sazi FC
0.61

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 249% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.25
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
91%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Machine Sazi FC
82%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
27%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
48%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
88%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
63%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
35%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
46%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
13%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
89%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
73%
level
18%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
9%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Machine Sazi FC

Esteghlal Khuzestan beat Machine Sazi FC 3-0 in Azadegan League on April 5, 2022.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.