Esteghlal Khuzestan 0–0 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

0 – 0

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

4/7/2021

Azadegan League · Round 19Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan49%

×Draw30%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchKhooshe Talaee Saveh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.66

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.21

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.66

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 83% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 83 away

1.25

creates per match

0.77

0.55

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.25

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

0.77

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.55

Khooshe Talaee Saveh

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

80%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

70%

Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh

51%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

22%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

70%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

34%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

12%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals

48%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals

14%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

71%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.16 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

49%

level

30%

Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more

20%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff