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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Foolad FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Foolad FC
Foolad FC
10/31/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan35%
×Draw31%
Foolad FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.98
Foolad FC
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 116 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.89
Foolad FC
0.84

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.07
Foolad FC
1.07

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Foolad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
66%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Foolad FC
69%
Draw or Foolad FC
65%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
13%
Foolad FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
62%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
26%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
8%
Foolad FC 1+ goals
62%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
25%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
51%
Foolad FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.07 · 56 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.89 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
35%
level
31%
Foolad FC scores more
34%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 Foolad FC

Esteghlal Khuzestan and Foolad FC drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 31, 2025.

The match was played at Ghadir Stadium in Ahvaz.