Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–0 Darya Babol: Result & Stats

Esteghlal Khuzestan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Darya Babol

2/6/2023

Azadegan League · Round 21Ghadir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan50%

×Draw31%

Darya Babol20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal KhuzestanExpected goals in this matchDarya Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.63

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.19

Darya Babol

0.63

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 89% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 34 away

1.25

creates per match

0.71

0.55

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

1.25

Darya Babol

0.71

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan

0.55

Darya Babol

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Darya Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Darya Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw

80%

Esteghlal Khuzestan or Darya Babol

69%

Draw or Darya Babol

50%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+

22%

Darya Babol wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals

70%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals

33%

Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals

12%

Darya Babol 1+ goals

47%

Darya Babol 2+ goals

13%

Darya Babol 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)

72%

Darya Babol (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.55 · 67 matches

Darya Babol away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.25 + Darya Babol defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Darya Babol attack 0.71 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more

50%

level

31%

Darya Babol scores more

20%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff