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Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
FT
0 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
M. Alinejad 67'
2/2/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 22Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan39%
×Draw35%
Aluminium Arak27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.91
Aluminium Arak
0.70

Esteghlal Khuzestan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 20 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.26
Aluminium Arak
0.85

allows per match

Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.55
Aluminium Arak
0.55

finishing

Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Khuzestan ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw
73%
Esteghlal Khuzestan or Aluminium Arak
65%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
61%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
14%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
60%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
23%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
6%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
50%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
16%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
59%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Khuzestan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.55 · 65 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 1.26 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.91

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
39%
level
35%
Aluminium Arak scores more
27%

Esteghlal Khuzestan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Esteghlal Khuzestan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'
M. Alinejad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Esteghlal Khuzestan 1-0 in Azadegan League on February 2, 2020.

Goals: M. Alinejad (67').

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.