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Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1/20/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Aluminium Arak47%
×Draw31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.17
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.71

Aluminium Arak creates 65% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
0.87
Esteghlal Khuzestan
0.63

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.79
Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.46

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Esteghlal Khuzestan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Esteghlal Khuzestan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
78%
Aluminium Arak or Esteghlal Khuzestan
69%
Draw or Esteghlal Khuzestan
53%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
20%
Esteghlal Khuzestan wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
69%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
33%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
11%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 1+ goals
51%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2+ goals
16%
Esteghlal Khuzestan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
68%
Esteghlal Khuzestan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Esteghlal Khuzestan away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Esteghlal Khuzestan defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.17

Esteghlal Khuzestan attack 0.63 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
47%
level
31%
Esteghlal Khuzestan scores more
22%

Aluminium Arak at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Esteghlal Khuzestan

Aluminium Arak and Esteghlal Khuzestan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.