Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Esteghlal FC vs ZOB Ahan — AFC Champions League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
ZOB Ahan
ZOB Ahan
5/15/2018AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsAzadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Esteghlal FC51%
×Draw23%
ZOB Ahan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.83
ZOB Ahan
1.26

Esteghlal FC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.55
ZOB Ahan
1.67

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.85
ZOB Ahan
2.11

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
ZOB Ahan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

ZOB Ahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
74%
Esteghlal FC or ZOB Ahan
77%
Draw or ZOB Ahan
49%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
28%
ZOB Ahan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
84%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
54%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
28%
ZOB Ahan 1+ goals
72%
ZOB Ahan 2+ goals
36%
ZOB Ahan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
66%
ZOB Ahan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

ZOB Ahan away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + ZOB Ahan defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.83

ZOB Ahan attack 1.67 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
51%
level
23%
ZOB Ahan scores more
26%

Esteghlal FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal FC vs ZOB Ahan

Esteghlal FC beat ZOB Ahan 3-1 in AFC Champions League on May 15, 2018.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.