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Esteghlal FC vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
1/20/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Esteghlal FC49%
×Draw30%
Shams Azar Qazvin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.25
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.71

Esteghlal FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 41 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.42
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.78

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.63
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.07

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
79%
Esteghlal FC or Shams Azar Qazvin
70%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
51%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
23%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
71%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
36%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
13%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
51%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
16%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
70%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
49%
level
30%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
21%

Esteghlal FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal FC 0–1 Shams Azar Qazvin

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Esteghlal FC 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on January 20, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.