Esteghlal FC 1–0 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Esteghlal FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sepahan FC

2/27/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 18Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Esteghlal FC38%

×Draw30%

Sepahan FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.00

Esteghlal FC

1.12

Sepahan FC

1.00

Esteghlal FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 115 away

1.42

creates per match

1.38

0.63

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

1.42

Sepahan FC

1.38

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.63

Sepahan FC

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

68%

Esteghlal FC or Sepahan FC

70%

Draw or Sepahan FC

62%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

16%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

67%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

31%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

10%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

63%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

26%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

54%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.12

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

38%

level

30%

Sepahan FC scores more

32%

Esteghlal FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff