Esteghlal FC 0–1 Muharraq: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Esteghlal FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Muharraq

10/1/2025

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Esteghlal FC27%

×Draw30%

Muharraq43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchMuharraq

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.18

Esteghlal FC

0.88

Muharraq

1.18

Muharraq creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.75

creates per match

1.60

0.75

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

0.75

Muharraq

1.60

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.75

Muharraq

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Muharraq+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Muharraq →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

57%

Esteghlal FC or Muharraq

70%

Draw or Muharraq

73%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

9%

Muharraq wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

59%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

22%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

6%

Muharraq 1+ goals

69%

Muharraq 2+ goals

33%

Muharraq 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

39%

Muharraq (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Muharraq away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 0.75 + Muharraq defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Muharraq attack 1.60 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

27%

level

30%

Muharraq scores more

43%

Muharraq at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Muharraq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff