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Esteghlal FC vs Malavan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
8/17/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 2Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Esteghlal FC51%
×Draw29%
Malavan19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.27
Malavan
0.66

Esteghlal FC creates 92% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 54 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.42
Malavan
0.69

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.63
Malavan
1.13

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
81%
Esteghlal FC or Malavan
71%
Draw or Malavan
49%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
24%
Malavan wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
72%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
36%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
14%
Malavan 1+ goals
48%
Malavan 2+ goals
14%
Malavan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
73%
Malavan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.63 · 115 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.42 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Malavan attack 0.69 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
51%
level
29%
Malavan scores more
19%

Esteghlal FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal FC vs Malavan

Esteghlal FC beat Malavan 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on August 17, 2023.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Teheran.