Esteghlal FC vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Esteghlal FC49%
Aluminium Arak21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Esteghlal FC creates 76% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Esteghlal FC ↓
Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.69 · 100 matches
Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Esteghlal FC attack 1.44 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23
Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.70
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Esteghlal FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Aluminium Arak substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Sepahan FCEsteghlal FC
Chadormalu SC
Gol Gohar
Tractor Sazi
Persepolis FC
Foolad FC
Fajr Sepasi
Kheybar Khorramabad
Malavan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Paykan
Shams Azar QazvinAluminium Arak
ZOB Ahan
Mes RafsanjanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Esteghlal FC host Aluminium Arak on Friday, 31 October 2025 at 13:00. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Persian Gulf Pro League: Esteghlal FC 3–1 Aluminium Arak
Esteghlal FC beat Aluminium Arak 3-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 31, 2025.
Goals: J. Asani (17' pen), Munir El Haddadi (45'), R. Jafari (52' pen), A. Koushki (65').
The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.