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Esteghlal FC vs Al-Wasl FC — AFC Cup 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
11/26/2025AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Azadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Esteghlal FC32%
×Draw30%
Al-Wasl FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.00
Al-Wasl FC
1.13

Al-Wasl FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
0.75
Al-Wasl FC
1.50

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.75
Al-Wasl FC
1.25

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al-Wasl FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
62%
Esteghlal FC or Al-Wasl FC
70%
Draw or Al-Wasl FC
68%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
12%
Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
63%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
26%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
8%
Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
68%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
31%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
45%
Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 0.75 + Al-Wasl FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al-Wasl FC attack 1.50 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
32%
level
30%
Al-Wasl FC scores more
38%

Al-Wasl FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal FC vs Al-Wasl FC

Esteghlal FC and Al-Wasl FC drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on November 26, 2025.

The match was played at Azadi Stadium in Tehran.