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Esteghlal FC vs Al Wahda FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
CANC
18:00
Al Wahda FC
Al Wahda FC
9/17/2020AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Khalifa International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Esteghlal FC41%
×Draw31%
Al Wahda FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal FC
1.09
Al Wahda FC
0.86

Esteghlal FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Esteghlal FC
1.55
Al Wahda FC
0.88

allows per match

Esteghlal FC
0.85
Al Wahda FC
0.63

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par
Al Wahda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al Wahda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw
72%
Esteghlal FC or Al Wahda FC
69%
Draw or Al Wahda FC
59%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
17%
Al Wahda FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
66%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
30%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
10%
Al Wahda FC 1+ goals
58%
Al Wahda FC 2+ goals
21%
Al Wahda FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
59%
Al Wahda FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al Wahda FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al Wahda FC defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.09

Al Wahda FC attack 0.88 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more
41%
level
31%
Al Wahda FC scores more
28%

Esteghlal FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esteghlal FC host Al Wahda FC

September 17, 2020: Esteghlal FC take on Al Wahda FC in AFC Champions League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esteghlal FC host Al Wahda FC at Khalifa International Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.