Esteghlal FC 1–0 Al Shorta: Result & Stats

Esteghlal FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Shorta

C. Diabaté 14' (pen)

4/30/2021

AFC Champions League · Group C - 6King Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Esteghlal FC66%

×Draw22%

Al Shorta13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esteghlal FCExpected goals in this matchAl Shorta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.66

Esteghlal FC

1.85

Al Shorta

0.66

Esteghlal FC creates 180% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

1.55

creates per match

0.46

0.85

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

Esteghlal FC

1.55

Al Shorta

0.46

allows per match

Esteghlal FC

0.85

Al Shorta

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal FC ↓

Al Shorta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Esteghlal FC or draw

87%

Esteghlal FC or Al Shorta

78%

Draw or Al Shorta

34%

Winning margin

Esteghlal FC wins by 2+

39%

Al Shorta wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Esteghlal FC 1+ goals

84%

Esteghlal FC 2+ goals

55%

Esteghlal FC 3+ goals

28%

Al Shorta 1+ goals

48%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

14%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)

84%

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al Shorta defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Shorta attack 0.46 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Esteghlal FC scores more

66%

level

22%

Al Shorta scores more

13%

Esteghlal FC at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Mazaheri

Esteghlal FC · G

7.9

Match Events

14'

C. DiabatéPenalty

19'

Kudhur Ali Al-Tameemi

21'

Mohammed Dawood

22'

Mazin Fayyadh

46'

A. Motahari← C. Diabaté

55'

B. Moradi← A. Rezavand

56'

S. Mehri← D. Shojaeian

72'

Jasim Mohammed← Mazin Fayyadh

83'

Ammar Ghaleb← Amjad Attwan

84'

A. Ramezani← M. Ghaedi

85'

Mohammed Qasim

88'

Saad Natiq

88'

S. Yazdani Moghadam← V. Ghafouri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EsteghlalAl

Overview

43%Possession57%

11Total Shots8

5Corners3

12Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots8

6On Target4

5Off Target3

0Blocked1

6Inside Box3

5Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

419Total Passes527

349Accurate Passes471

83%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls13

0Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1