Esteghlal FC vs Al-Gharafa — AFC Champions League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Esteghlal FC68%
Al-Gharafa14%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Esteghlal FC creates 140% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Esteghlal FC ↓
Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Esteghlal FC at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches
Al-Gharafa away — creates 1.14, concedes 3.21 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Esteghlal FC attack 1.55 + Al-Gharafa defence 3.21 → ÷2 → 2.38
Al-Gharafa attack 1.14 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Esteghlal FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Esteghlal FC host Al-Gharafa on Monday, 16 September 2024 at 18:00. The match is part of the AFC Champions League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Esteghlal FC vs Al-Gharafa
Esteghlal FC beat Al-Gharafa 3-0 in AFC Champions League on September 16, 2024.
Goals: Abdalla Yousif (4' o.g.), R. Rezaeian (79'), A. Rezavand (88').
Esteghlal FC controlled possession (53%) and registered 20 shots to 4.
The match was played at Shahr-e Qods Stadium in Shahr-e Qods.