Este 5–3 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo: Result & Stats

Este

FT

5 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1/15/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Este45%

×Draw28%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteExpected goals in this matchVirtus Ciserano Bergamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.94

Este

1.31

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.94

Este creates 39% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

0.84

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Este

1.36

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

0.84

allows per match

Este

1.03

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Este+0.00on par

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Este or draw

73%

Este or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

72%

Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

55%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+

21%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals

73%

Este 2+ goals

38%

Este 3+ goals

14%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals

61%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals

24%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)

63%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Este scores more

45%

level

28%

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more

27%

Este at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff