Este 1–1 Virtus Bolzano: Result & Stats

Este

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Virtus Bolzano

11/19/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Este46%

×Draw28%

Virtus Bolzano27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteExpected goals in this matchVirtus Bolzano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.96

Este

1.35

Virtus Bolzano

0.96

Este creates 41% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

1.36

creates per match

0.88

1.03

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Este

1.36

Virtus Bolzano

0.88

allows per match

Este

1.03

Virtus Bolzano

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Este+0.00on par

Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Virtus Bolzano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Este or draw

73%

Este or Virtus Bolzano

72%

Draw or Virtus Bolzano

54%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+

22%

Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals

74%

Este 2+ goals

39%

Este 3+ goals

15%

Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals

62%

Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals

25%

Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)

63%

Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Este scores more

46%

level

28%

Virtus Bolzano scores more

27%

Este at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff