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Este vs Villa Valle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villa Valle
Villa Valle
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Stadio di Monteortone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Este38%
×Draw28%
Villa Valle35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.24
Villa Valle
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Villa Valle
1.32

allows per match

Este
1.03
Villa Valle
1.11

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Villa Valle+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Villa Valle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Este or draw
65%
Este or Villa Valle
72%
Draw or Villa Valle
62%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
16%
Villa Valle wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
71%
Este 2+ goals
35%
Este 3+ goals
13%
Villa Valle 1+ goals
69%
Villa Valle 2+ goals
33%
Villa Valle 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
52%
Villa Valle (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Villa Valle away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Villa Valle defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Villa Valle attack 1.32 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Este scores more
38%
level
28%
Villa Valle scores more
35%

Este at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Este vs Villa Valle

Este beat Villa Valle 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio di Monteortone in Abano Terme.