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Este vs Spinea — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
0 – 2
Spinea
Spinea
12/5/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Este51%
×Draw25%
Spinea25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.65
Spinea
1.08

Este creates 53% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Spinea
1.12

allows per match

Este
1.03
Spinea
1.94

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Spinea+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Spinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Este or draw
75%
Este or Spinea
75%
Draw or Spinea
49%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
27%
Spinea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
81%
Este 2+ goals
49%
Este 3+ goals
23%
Spinea 1+ goals
66%
Spinea 2+ goals
29%
Spinea 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
67%
Spinea (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Spinea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Spinea defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.65

Spinea attack 1.12 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Este scores more
51%
level
25%
Spinea scores more
25%

Este at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Este 0 – 2 Spinea

Spinea beat Este 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale in Este.