Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Este vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
F. Bordi 56'
5/15/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Este56%
×Draw24%
San Martino Speme20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.74
San Martino Speme
0.93

Este creates 87% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Este
1.03
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Este+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Este or draw
80%
Este or San Martino Speme
76%
Draw or San Martino Speme
44%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
32%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
82%
Este 2+ goals
52%
Este 3+ goals
25%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
61%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
24%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
74%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.74

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Este scores more
56%
level
24%
San Martino Speme scores more
20%

Este at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
F. Bordi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Este 1–0 San Martino Speme

Este beat San Martino Speme 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on May 15, 2022.

Goals: F. Bordi (56').

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale in Este.