Este 1–0 Real Calepina: Result & Stats

Este

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Calepina

G. Dalla Bernardina 41'

10/23/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio di Monteortone

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Este43%

×Draw27%

Real Calepina30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsteExpected goals in this matchReal Calepina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.07

Este

1.34

Real Calepina

1.07

Este creates 25% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

1.36

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Este

1.36

Real Calepina

1.11

allows per match

Este

1.03

Real Calepina

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Este+0.00on par

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Real Calepina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Este or draw

70%

Este or Real Calepina

73%

Draw or Real Calepina

57%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+

20%

Real Calepina wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals

74%

Este 2+ goals

39%

Este 3+ goals

15%

Real Calepina 1+ goals

66%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

29%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)

59%

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Este scores more

43%

level

27%

Real Calepina scores more

30%

Este at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

G. Dalla Bernardina

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff