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Este vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
3/2/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Nuovo Stadio Comunale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Este42%
×Draw26%
Montecchio Maggiore31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.41
Montecchio Maggiore
1.18

Este creates 19% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 53 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Este
1.03
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Este or draw
69%
Este or Montecchio Maggiore
74%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
58%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
20%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
76%
Este 2+ goals
41%
Este 3+ goals
17%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
69%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
33%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
57%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Este scores more
42%
level
26%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
31%

Este at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Este 2–0 Montecchio Maggiore

Este beat Montecchio Maggiore 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale in Este.