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Este vs Cartigliano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Este
Este
FT
1 – 0
Cartigliano
Cartigliano
9/29/2019Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 6Nuovo Stadio Comunale (Este)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Este40%
×Draw26%
Cartigliano34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Este
1.37
Cartigliano
1.23

Este creates 11% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 49 away

creates per match

Este
1.36
Cartigliano
1.43

allows per match

Este
1.03
Cartigliano
1.37

finishing

Este+0.00on par
Cartigliano+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Este ↓

Cartigliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Este or draw
66%
Este or Cartigliano
74%
Draw or Cartigliano
60%

Winning margin

Este wins by 2+
19%
Cartigliano wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Este 1+ goals
75%
Este 2+ goals
40%
Este 3+ goals
16%
Cartigliano 1+ goals
71%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
35%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Este (draw refunded)
54%
Cartigliano (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Este at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

Cartigliano away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Este attack 1.36 + Cartigliano defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Este defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Este scores more
40%
level
26%
Cartigliano scores more
34%

Este at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Este will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Este vs Cartigliano

Este beat Cartigliano 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Nuovo Stadio Comunale (Este).