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Cartigliano vs Este — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cartigliano
Cartigliano
FT
1 – 2
Este
Este
2/2/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 25Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Cartigliano40%
×Draw27%
Este33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartigliano
1.33
Este
1.19

Cartigliano creates 12% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 102 away

creates per match

Cartigliano
1.43
Este
1.09

allows per match

Cartigliano
1.28
Este
1.24

finishing

Cartigliano+0.00on par
Este+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartigliano ↓

Este →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cartigliano or draw
67%
Cartigliano or Este
73%
Draw or Este
60%

Winning margin

Cartigliano wins by 2+
18%
Este wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cartigliano 1+ goals
74%
Cartigliano 2+ goals
38%
Cartigliano 3+ goals
15%
Este 1+ goals
70%
Este 2+ goals
33%
Este 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cartigliano (draw refunded)
55%
Este (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartigliano at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

Este away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.24 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartigliano attack 1.43 + Este defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Este attack 1.09 + Cartigliano defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cartigliano scores more
40%
level
27%
Este scores more
33%

Cartigliano at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cartigliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Cartigliano 1–2 Este

Este beat Cartigliano 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 2, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Fair Play di Cartigliano (Cartigliano).