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Estac Troyes vs Versailles — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
3 – 2
Versailles
Versailles
1/6/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Estac Troyes39%
×Draw26%
Versailles35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.40
Versailles
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.80
Versailles
0.83

allows per match

Estac Troyes
1.80
Versailles
1.00

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Versailles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Versailles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
65%
Estac Troyes or Versailles
74%
Draw or Versailles
61%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
18%
Versailles wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
75%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
41%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
17%
Versailles 1+ goals
73%
Versailles 2+ goals
38%
Versailles 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
53%
Versailles (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Versailles away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.80 + Versailles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Versailles attack 0.83 + Estac Troyes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
39%
level
26%
Versailles scores more
35%

Estac Troyes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estac Troyes vs Versailles

Estac Troyes beat Versailles 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.