Estac Troyes 3–2 Orleans: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Estac Troyes

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Orleans

B. Pelé 83'

C. Martins Pereira 66'

K. Fortuné 45+4' (pen)

J. Tell 59'

D. Avounou 56'

12/4/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Estac Troyes53%

×Draw25%

Orleans22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchOrleans

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.96

Estac Troyes

1.63

Orleans

0.96

Estac Troyes creates 70% more chances

Season form · 189 home / 80 away

1.63

creates per match

1.05

0.87

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.63

Orleans

1.05

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.87

Orleans

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Orleans+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Orleans →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

78%

Estac Troyes or Orleans

75%

Draw or Orleans

47%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

28%

Orleans wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

80%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

48%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

22%

Orleans 1+ goals

62%

Orleans 2+ goals

25%

Orleans 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

70%

Orleans (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.87 · 189 matches

Orleans away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.63 + Orleans defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Orleans attack 1.05 + Estac Troyes defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

53%

level

25%

Orleans scores more

22%

Estac Troyes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Tell

Orleans · F

8.3

Match Events

32'

Cédric Cambon

45'

Cédric Cambon

45'

Cédric Cambon

45+4'

K. FortunéPenalty

56'

D. Avounou↳ J. Tell

59'

B. Mbeumo← B. Nivet

59'

J. Tell↳ O. Cissokho

66'

C. Martins Pereira↳ K. Fortuné

70'

Yoann Salmier

78'

T. Ephestion← A. Lauriente

82'

R. Raveloson← J. Cordoval

83'

B. Pelé

86'

G. Perrin← D. Avounou

86'

Q. Lecoeuche← S. Furtado

87'

A. Kashi← Y. Touzghar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacOrleans

Overview

60%Possession40%

7Total Shots10

1Corners5

13Fouls13

Shots

7Total Shots10

4On Target5

3Off Target3

0Blocked2

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

60%Possession40%

536Total Passes331

443Accurate Passes250

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides6

Ligue 2: Estac Troyes 3–2 Orleans

Estac Troyes beat Orleans 3-2 in Ligue 2 on December 4, 2018.

Goals: K. Fortuné (45+4' pen), D. Avounou (56'), J. Tell (59'), C. Martins Pereira (66'), B. Pelé (83').

Estac Troyes controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.

Estac Troyes vs Orleans — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Estac Troyes 3–2 Orleans