Estac Troyes 1–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Estac Troyes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

Suk Hyun-Jun 52'

12/18/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Estac Troyes52%

×Draw25%

Niort22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.92

Estac Troyes

1.56

Niort

0.92

Estac Troyes creates 70% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 92 away

1.57

creates per match

0.85

0.98

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.57

Niort

0.85

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.98

Niort

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

78%

Estac Troyes or Niort

75%

Draw or Niort

48%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

27%

Niort wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

79%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

46%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

21%

Niort 1+ goals

60%

Niort 2+ goals

23%

Niort 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

70%

Niort (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Niort away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Niort defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.56

Niort attack 0.85 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

52%

level

25%

Niort scores more

22%

Estac Troyes at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Moutachy

Niort · D

8.7

Match Events

34'

Joseph Mendes

45'

Ibrahima Sory Conté

52'

Suk Hyun-Jun↳ R. Raveloson

55'

L. Vallier← D. Djigla

55'

D. Louiserre← Y. Bourhane

67'

Hyun-Jun Suk

68'

Y. Touzghar← Suk Hyun-Jun

68'

D. Chambost← M. Barthelmé

68'

D. Saint-Louis← A. Gory

76'

P. Ba← R. Raveloson

76'

B. Boutobba← D. Yongwa Ngameni

88'

Rui Pires← T. Dingomé

88'

Y. Benhattab← B. Doukansy

90'

Yassine Benhattab

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacNiort

Overview

69%Possession31%

22Total Shots5

7Corners1

15Fouls11

Shots

22Total Shots5

7On Target2

7Off Target3

8Blocked0

14Inside Box2

8Outside Box3

Passing

69%Possession31%

676Total Passes309

575Accurate Passes208

85%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

15Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4