Estac Troyes 2–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Estac Troyes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Niort

D. Camara 89'

R. Raveloson 8'

9/14/2018

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Estac Troyes53%

×Draw25%

Niort22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estac TroyesExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.91

Estac Troyes

1.56

Niort

0.91

Estac Troyes creates 71% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 94 away

1.57

creates per match

0.83

0.98

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Estac Troyes

1.57

Niort

0.83

allows per match

Estac Troyes

0.98

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw

78%

Estac Troyes or Niort

75%

Draw or Niort

47%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+

27%

Niort wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals

79%

Estac Troyes 2+ goals

46%

Estac Troyes 3+ goals

21%

Niort 1+ goals

60%

Niort 2+ goals

23%

Niort 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)

70%

Niort (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Niort away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.55 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.56

Niort attack 0.83 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Estac Troyes scores more

53%

level

25%

Niort scores more

22%

Estac Troyes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. Raveloson

Estac Troyes · D

7.7

Match Events

8'

R. Raveloson↳ K. Fortuné

9'

24'

31'

41'

45'

45'

57'

B. Nivet← J. Berthomier

62'

Bryan Mbeumo

65'

Cyriaque Rivieryan

67'

D. Camara← B. Mbeumo

72'

F. Lapis← C. Rivieyran

76'

A. Baroan← J. Da Costa

80'

A. Confais← K. Fortuné

88'

Aboubacar Demba Camara

89'

D. Camara↳ B. Pelé

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstacNiort

Overview

43%Possession57%

12Total Shots9

4Corners8

18Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target1

6Off Target8

2Blocked0

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

316Total Passes410

224Accurate Passes310

71%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides6