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Estac Troyes vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Caen
Caen
4/17/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade de l'Aube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Estac Troyes49%
×Draw25%
Caen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estac Troyes
1.55
Caen
1.04

Estac Troyes creates 49% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 107 away

creates per match

Estac Troyes
1.57
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Estac Troyes
0.98
Caen
1.53

finishing

Estac Troyes+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estac Troyes ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estac Troyes or draw
75%
Estac Troyes or Caen
75%
Draw or Caen
51%

Winning margin

Estac Troyes wins by 2+
25%
Caen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Estac Troyes 1+ goals
79%
Estac Troyes 2+ goals
46%
Estac Troyes 3+ goals
20%
Caen 1+ goals
65%
Caen 2+ goals
28%
Caen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Estac Troyes (draw refunded)
66%
Caen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estac Troyes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 106 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estac Troyes attack 1.57 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Caen attack 1.10 + Estac Troyes defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Estac Troyes scores more
49%
level
25%
Caen scores more
25%

Estac Troyes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Estac Troyes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Estac Troyes 1–0 Caen

Estac Troyes beat Caen 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de l'Aube in Troyes.