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Essingen vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Essingen
Essingen
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
5/3/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 30Carento-Arena Essingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Essingen42%
×Draw24%
Normannia Gmünd34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essingen
1.61
Normannia Gmünd
1.41

Essingen creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Essingen
1.49
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

Essingen
1.49
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

Essingen+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essingen ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Essingen or draw
66%
Essingen or Normannia Gmünd
76%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
58%

Winning margin

Essingen wins by 2+
21%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Essingen 1+ goals
80%
Essingen 2+ goals
48%
Essingen 3+ goals
22%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
76%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
41%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Essingen (draw refunded)
56%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essingen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 51 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essingen attack 1.49 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Essingen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Essingen scores more
42%
level
24%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
34%

Essingen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Essingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Essingen 3–0 Normannia Gmünd

Essingen beat Normannia Gmünd 3-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Carento-Arena Essingen in Essingen.