Essingen 1–1 Fellbach: Result & Stats

Essingen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fellbach

D. Melo 7'

Y. Egle 90+3'

12/7/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 20Carento-Arena Essingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Essingen55%

×Draw21%

Fellbach24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EssingenExpected goals in this matchFellbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.36

Essingen

2.13

Fellbach

1.36

Essingen creates 57% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.49

creates per match

1.24

1.49

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Essingen

1.49

Fellbach

1.24

allows per match

Essingen

1.49

Fellbach

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Essingen+0.00on par

Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essingen ↓

Fellbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Essingen or draw

76%

Essingen or Fellbach

79%

Draw or Fellbach

45%

Winning margin

Essingen wins by 2+

33%

Fellbach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Essingen 1+ goals

88%

Essingen 2+ goals

63%

Essingen 3+ goals

35%

Fellbach 1+ goals

74%

Fellbach 2+ goals

39%

Fellbach 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Essingen (draw refunded)

69%

Fellbach (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essingen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 51 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essingen attack 1.49 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Essingen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Essingen scores more

55%

level

21%

Fellbach scores more

24%

Essingen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Essingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

D. Melo

57'

B. Berisha

90+3'

Y. Egle

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff