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Essingen vs Denzlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Essingen
Essingen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Denzlingen
Denzlingen
8/5/2023Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1Schönbrunnen Stadion Essingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Essingen52%
×Draw22%
Denzlingen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essingen
1.96
Denzlingen
1.33

Essingen creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Essingen
1.49
Denzlingen
1.18

allows per match

Essingen
1.49
Denzlingen
2.44

finishing

Essingen+0.00on par
Denzlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essingen ↓

Denzlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Essingen or draw
74%
Essingen or Denzlingen
78%
Draw or Denzlingen
48%

Winning margin

Essingen wins by 2+
30%
Denzlingen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Essingen 1+ goals
86%
Essingen 2+ goals
58%
Essingen 3+ goals
31%
Denzlingen 1+ goals
74%
Denzlingen 2+ goals
38%
Denzlingen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Essingen (draw refunded)
67%
Denzlingen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essingen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 51 matches

Denzlingen away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.44 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essingen attack 1.49 + Denzlingen defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.96

Denzlingen attack 1.18 + Essingen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Essingen scores more
52%
level
22%
Denzlingen scores more
26%

Essingen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Essingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Essingen 0–2 Denzlingen

Denzlingen beat Essingen 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Schönbrunnen Stadion Essingen in Essingen.