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Essentuki vs Mashuk-KMV — Second League - Group 1 2020

Essentuki
Essentuki
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Mashuk-KMV
Mashuk-KMV
3/31/2023Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Yessentuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Essentuki23%
×Draw21%
Mashuk-KMV56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essentuki
1.31
Mashuk-KMV
2.11

Mashuk-KMV creates 61% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 57 away

creates per match

Essentuki
0.77
Mashuk-KMV
1.18

allows per match

Essentuki
3.05
Mashuk-KMV
1.86

finishing

Essentuki+0.00on par
Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essentuki ↓

Mashuk-KMV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Essentuki or draw
44%
Essentuki or Mashuk-KMV
79%
Draw or Mashuk-KMV
77%

Winning margin

Essentuki wins by 2+
10%
Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Essentuki 1+ goals
73%
Essentuki 2+ goals
38%
Essentuki 3+ goals
14%
Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals
88%
Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals
62%
Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Essentuki (draw refunded)
30%
Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essentuki at home — creates 0.77, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essentuki attack 0.77 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.31

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.18 + Essentuki defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Essentuki scores more
23%
level
21%
Mashuk-KMV scores more
56%

Mashuk-KMV at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Essentuki 0–3 Mashuk-KMV

Mashuk-KMV beat Essentuki 3-0 in Second League - Group 1 on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Yessentuki Arena in Yessentuki.