Esportivo 4–1 Rio Branco PR: Result & Stats

Esportivo

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Branco PR

9/4/2021

Serie D · Round 14Estádio Parque Esportivo Montanha dos Vinhedos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Esportivo65%

×Draw21%

Rio Branco PR14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EsportivoExpected goals in this matchRio Branco PR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.77

Esportivo

1.95

Rio Branco PR

0.77

Esportivo creates 153% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

1.33

creates per match

0.43

1.11

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Esportivo

1.33

Rio Branco PR

0.43

allows per match

Esportivo

1.11

Rio Branco PR

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esportivo+0.00on par

Rio Branco PR+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esportivo ↓

Rio Branco PR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Esportivo or draw

86%

Esportivo or Rio Branco PR

79%

Draw or Rio Branco PR

35%

Winning margin

Esportivo wins by 2+

40%

Rio Branco PR wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Esportivo 1+ goals

86%

Esportivo 2+ goals

58%

Esportivo 3+ goals

31%

Rio Branco PR 1+ goals

54%

Rio Branco PR 2+ goals

18%

Rio Branco PR 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Esportivo (draw refunded)

82%

Rio Branco PR (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esportivo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Rio Branco PR away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esportivo attack 1.33 + Rio Branco PR defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.95

Rio Branco PR attack 0.43 + Esportivo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Esportivo scores more

65%

level

21%

Rio Branco PR scores more

14%

Esportivo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Esportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff