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Esportivo vs Marcílio Dias — Serie D 2018

Esportivo
Esportivo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marcílio Dias
Marcílio Dias
7/31/2021Serie DSerie D · Round 9Estádio Parque Esportivo Montanha dos Vinhedos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Esportivo47%
×Draw27%
Marcílio Dias26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esportivo
1.39
Marcílio Dias
0.95

Esportivo creates 46% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 39 away

creates per match

Esportivo
1.33
Marcílio Dias
0.79

allows per match

Esportivo
1.11
Marcílio Dias
1.44

finishing

Esportivo+0.00on par
Marcílio Dias+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esportivo ↓

Marcílio Dias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Esportivo or draw
74%
Esportivo or Marcílio Dias
73%
Draw or Marcílio Dias
53%

Winning margin

Esportivo wins by 2+
23%
Marcílio Dias wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esportivo 1+ goals
75%
Esportivo 2+ goals
40%
Esportivo 3+ goals
16%
Marcílio Dias 1+ goals
61%
Marcílio Dias 2+ goals
25%
Marcílio Dias 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Esportivo (draw refunded)
65%
Marcílio Dias (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esportivo at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Marcílio Dias away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esportivo attack 1.33 + Marcílio Dias defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Marcílio Dias attack 0.79 + Esportivo defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esportivo scores more
47%
level
27%
Marcílio Dias scores more
26%

Esportivo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Esportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esportivo vs Marcílio Dias

Esportivo and Marcílio Dias drew 0-0 in Serie D on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Parque Esportivo Montanha dos Vinhedos in Bento Gonçalves, Rio Grande do Sul.