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Esporles vs Platges Calvià — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Esporles
Esporles
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Platges Calvià
Platges Calvià
10/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 10Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles23%
×Draw23%
Platges Calvià54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esporles
1.07
Platges Calvià
1.77

Platges Calvià creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 112 away

creates per match

Esporles
1.21
Platges Calvià
1.13

allows per match

Esporles
2.41
Platges Calvià
0.94

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par
Platges Calvià+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

Platges Calvià →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Esporles or draw
46%
Esporles or Platges Calvià
77%
Draw or Platges Calvià
77%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+
8%
Platges Calvià wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals
66%
Esporles 2+ goals
29%
Esporles 3+ goals
9%
Platges Calvià 1+ goals
83%
Platges Calvià 2+ goals
53%
Platges Calvià 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)
30%
Platges Calvià (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

Platges Calvià away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.94 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + Platges Calvià defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Platges Calvià attack 1.13 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Esporles scores more
23%
level
23%
Platges Calvià scores more
54%

Platges Calvià at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Platges Calvià will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Esporles 0–1 Platges Calvià

Platges Calvià beat Esporles 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 25, 2019.

The match was played at Son Quint Estadio in Esporles.