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Esporles vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Esporles
Esporles
CANC
22:00
Collerense
Collerense
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 37Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles35%
×Draw23%
Collerense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esporles
1.54
Collerense
1.71

Collerense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Esporles
1.21
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Esporles
2.41
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Esporles or draw
58%
Esporles or Collerense
77%
Draw or Collerense
65%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+
17%
Collerense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals
79%
Esporles 2+ goals
45%
Esporles 3+ goals
20%
Collerense 1+ goals
82%
Collerense 2+ goals
51%
Collerense 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)
45%
Collerense (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Collerense attack 1.00 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Esporles scores more
35%
level
23%
Collerense scores more
42%

Collerense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Esporles host Collerense

May 9, 2020: Esporles take on Collerense in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Esporles host Collerense at Son Quint Estadio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.