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Esporles vs Binissalem — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Esporles
Esporles
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Binissalem
Binissalem
11/23/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 14Son Quint Estadio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Esporles29%
×Draw24%
Binissalem47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esporles
1.27
Binissalem
1.67

Binissalem creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 113 away

creates per match

Esporles
1.21
Binissalem
0.92

allows per match

Esporles
2.41
Binissalem
1.32

finishing

Esporles+0.00on par
Binissalem+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esporles ↓

Binissalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Esporles or draw
53%
Esporles or Binissalem
76%
Draw or Binissalem
71%

Winning margin

Esporles wins by 2+
12%
Binissalem wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Esporles 1+ goals
72%
Esporles 2+ goals
36%
Esporles 3+ goals
14%
Binissalem 1+ goals
81%
Binissalem 2+ goals
50%
Binissalem 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Esporles (draw refunded)
38%
Binissalem (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esporles at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.41 · 29 matches

Binissalem away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.32 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esporles attack 1.21 + Binissalem defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Binissalem attack 0.92 + Esporles defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Esporles scores more
29%
level
24%
Binissalem scores more
47%

Binissalem at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Binissalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esporles vs Binissalem

Binissalem beat Esporles 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Son Quint Estadio in Esporles.