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Espoir vs Heroes — National Soccer League 2019

Espoir
Espoir
FT
1 – 1
Heroes
Heroes
3/10/2020National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 23Cyangugu Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Espoir42%
×Draw30%
Heroes29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espoir
1.17
Heroes
0.92

Espoir creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 11 away

creates per match

Espoir
0.88
Heroes
0.73

allows per match

Espoir
1.10
Heroes
1.45

finishing

Espoir+0.00on par
Heroes+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir ↓

Heroes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Espoir or draw
71%
Espoir or Heroes
70%
Draw or Heroes
58%

Winning margin

Espoir wins by 2+
18%
Heroes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Espoir 1+ goals
69%
Espoir 2+ goals
33%
Espoir 3+ goals
11%
Heroes 1+ goals
60%
Heroes 2+ goals
23%
Heroes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Espoir (draw refunded)
59%
Heroes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Heroes away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir attack 0.88 + Heroes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Heroes attack 0.73 + Espoir defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Espoir scores more
42%
level
30%
Heroes scores more
29%

Espoir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Espoir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Espoir 1–1 Heroes

Espoir and Heroes drew 1-1 in National Soccer League on March 10, 2020.

The match was played at Cyangugu Regional Stadium in Cyangugu.