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Espoir vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Espoir
Espoir
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Etoile de l'Est
Etoile de l'Est
1/15/2022National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 12Cyangugu Regional Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Espoir45%
×Draw29%
Etoile de l'Est26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espoir
1.27
Etoile de l'Est
0.90

Espoir creates 41% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 30 away

creates per match

Espoir
0.88
Etoile de l'Est
0.70

allows per match

Espoir
1.10
Etoile de l'Est
1.67

finishing

Espoir+0.00on par
Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir ↓

Etoile de l'Est →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Espoir or draw
74%
Espoir or Etoile de l'Est
71%
Draw or Etoile de l'Est
55%

Winning margin

Espoir wins by 2+
20%
Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Espoir 1+ goals
72%
Espoir 2+ goals
36%
Espoir 3+ goals
14%
Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals
59%
Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals
23%
Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Espoir (draw refunded)
63%
Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.10 · 48 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir attack 0.88 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Espoir defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Espoir scores more
45%
level
29%
Etoile de l'Est scores more
26%

Espoir at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Espoir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Espoir vs Etoile de l'Est

Espoir and Etoile de l'Est drew 0-0 in National Soccer League on January 15, 2022.

The match was played at Cyangugu Regional Stadium in Cyangugu.