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Espoir Savalou vs Tukunnin — Championnat National 2019

Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
FT
0 – 2
Tukunnin
Tukunnin
3/13/2024Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Championship Round - 7Stade Municipal de Savalou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Espoir Savalou44%
×Draw30%
Tukunnin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espoir Savalou
1.17
Tukunnin
0.81

Espoir Savalou creates 44% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 88 away

creates per match

Espoir Savalou
1.22
Tukunnin
0.80

allows per match

Espoir Savalou
0.81
Tukunnin
1.13

finishing

Espoir Savalou+0.00on par
Tukunnin+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir Savalou ↓

Tukunnin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Espoir Savalou or draw
75%
Espoir Savalou or Tukunnin
70%
Draw or Tukunnin
56%

Winning margin

Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
19%
Tukunnin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
69%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
33%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
11%
Tukunnin 1+ goals
56%
Tukunnin 2+ goals
19%
Tukunnin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
63%
Tukunnin (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir Savalou at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

Tukunnin away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir Savalou attack 1.22 + Tukunnin defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tukunnin attack 0.80 + Espoir Savalou defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Espoir Savalou scores more
44%
level
30%
Tukunnin scores more
25%

Espoir Savalou at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Espoir Savalou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Espoir Savalou 0–2 Tukunnin

Tukunnin beat Espoir Savalou 2-0 in Championnat National on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Savalou in Savalou.