Espoir Savalou 2–1 Dynamo Unacob: Result & Stats

Espoir Savalou

FT

2 – 1

Dynamo Unacob

9/29/2024

Championnat National · Group A - 1Stade Municipal de Savalou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Espoir Savalou50%

×Draw28%

Dynamo Unacob22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Espoir SavalouExpected goals in this matchDynamo Unacob

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.81

Espoir Savalou

1.37

Dynamo Unacob

0.81

Espoir Savalou creates 69% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 87 away

1.22

creates per match

0.82

0.81

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Espoir Savalou

1.22

Dynamo Unacob

0.82

allows per match

Espoir Savalou

0.81

Dynamo Unacob

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Dynamo Unacob+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espoir Savalou ↓

Dynamo Unacob →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Espoir Savalou or draw

78%

Espoir Savalou or Dynamo Unacob

72%

Draw or Dynamo Unacob

50%

Winning margin

Espoir Savalou wins by 2+

24%

Dynamo Unacob wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Espoir Savalou 1+ goals

75%

Espoir Savalou 2+ goals

40%

Espoir Savalou 3+ goals

16%

Dynamo Unacob 1+ goals

56%

Dynamo Unacob 2+ goals

19%

Dynamo Unacob 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)

69%

Dynamo Unacob (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espoir Savalou at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

Dynamo Unacob away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espoir Savalou attack 1.22 + Dynamo Unacob defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dynamo Unacob attack 0.82 + Espoir Savalou defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Espoir Savalou scores more

50%

level

28%

Dynamo Unacob scores more

22%

Espoir Savalou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Espoir Savalou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff