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Espinho vs Sintrense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Espinho
Espinho
Pens
0 – 0
Sintrense
Sintrense
9/30/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio do Bolhão (Fiães)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Espinho44%
×Draw25%
Sintrense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espinho
1.53
Sintrense
1.25

Espinho creates 22% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Espinho
1.67
Sintrense
1.60

allows per match

Espinho
0.89
Sintrense
1.40

finishing

Espinho+0.00on par
Sintrense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espinho ↓

Sintrense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Espinho or draw
69%
Espinho or Sintrense
75%
Draw or Sintrense
56%

Winning margin

Espinho wins by 2+
22%
Sintrense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Espinho 1+ goals
78%
Espinho 2+ goals
45%
Espinho 3+ goals
20%
Sintrense 1+ goals
71%
Sintrense 2+ goals
36%
Sintrense 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Espinho (draw refunded)
58%
Sintrense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espinho at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Sintrense away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espinho attack 1.67 + Sintrense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Sintrense attack 1.60 + Espinho defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Espinho scores more
44%
level
25%
Sintrense scores more
31%

Espinho at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Espinho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Espinho 0–0 Sintrense

Espinho and Sintrense drew 0-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio do Bolhão (Fiães).