Espinho 1–0 Chaves: Result & Stats

Espinho

1 – 0

Chaves

10/11/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Marques da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Espinho45%

×Draw27%

Chaves28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspinhoExpected goals in this matchChaves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.03

Espinho

1.38

Chaves

1.03

Espinho creates 34% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

1.67

creates per match

1.18

0.89

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Espinho

1.67

Chaves

1.18

allows per match

Espinho

0.89

Chaves

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espinho+0.00on par

Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espinho ↓

Chaves →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Espinho or draw

72%

Espinho or Chaves

73%

Draw or Chaves

55%

Winning margin

Espinho wins by 2+

21%

Chaves wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Espinho 1+ goals

75%

Espinho 2+ goals

40%

Espinho 3+ goals

16%

Chaves 1+ goals

64%

Chaves 2+ goals

28%

Chaves 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Espinho (draw refunded)

62%

Chaves (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Espinho at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Chaves away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Espinho attack 1.67 + Chaves defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.38

Chaves attack 1.18 + Espinho defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Espinho scores more

45%

level

27%

Chaves scores more

28%

Espinho at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Espinho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff