Espinho 2–0 Castro Daire: Result & Stats

Espinho

2 – 0

Castro Daire

9/8/2019

Taça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio do Bolhão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Espinho71%

×Draw21%

Castro Daire8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EspinhoExpected goals in this matchCastro Daire

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.45

Espinho

1.83

Castro Daire

0.45

Espinho creates 307% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

0.00

0.89

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Espinho

1.67

Castro Daire

0.00

allows per match

Espinho

0.89

Castro Daire

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Espinho+0.00on par

Castro Daire+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espinho ↓

Castro Daire →

0–010%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–019%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Espinho or draw

92%

Espinho or Castro Daire

79%

Draw or Castro Daire

29%

Winning margin

Espinho wins by 2+

43%

Castro Daire wins by 2+

Team goals

Espinho 1+ goals

84%

Espinho 2+ goals

54%

Espinho 3+ goals

28%

Castro Daire 1+ goals

36%

Castro Daire 2+ goals

Castro Daire 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Espinho (draw refunded)

89%

Castro Daire (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Espinho at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Castro Daire away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Espinho attack 1.67 + Castro Daire defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Castro Daire attack 0.00 + Espinho defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Espinho scores more

71%

level

21%

Castro Daire scores more

Espinho at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Espinho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff