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Espinho vs Arouca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Espinho
Espinho
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
11/23/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio do Bolhão

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Espinho31%
×Draw24%
Arouca46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Espinho
1.38
Arouca
1.72

Arouca creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Espinho
1.67
Arouca
2.54

allows per match

Espinho
0.89
Arouca
1.08

finishing

Espinho+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Espinho ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Espinho or draw
54%
Espinho or Arouca
76%
Draw or Arouca
69%

Winning margin

Espinho wins by 2+
14%
Arouca wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Espinho 1+ goals
75%
Espinho 2+ goals
40%
Espinho 3+ goals
16%
Arouca 1+ goals
82%
Arouca 2+ goals
51%
Arouca 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Espinho (draw refunded)
40%
Arouca (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Espinho at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Espinho attack 1.67 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arouca attack 2.54 + Espinho defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Espinho scores more
31%
level
24%
Arouca scores more
46%

Arouca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Espinho vs Arouca

Espinho and Arouca drew 2-2 in Taça de Portugal on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio do Bolhão in Fiães.