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Esperance Tunis vs Kosovo U19 — League #202 2026

Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kosovo U19
Kosovo U19
12/22/2012League #202League #202 · Round 7Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Esperance Tunis62%
×Draw28%
Kosovo U1911%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esperance Tunis
1.38
Kosovo U19
0.40

Esperance Tunis creates 245% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 8 away

creates per match

Esperance Tunis
1.88
Kosovo U19
0.25

allows per match

Esperance Tunis
0.54
Kosovo U19
0.88

finishing

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par
Kosovo U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperance Tunis ↓

Kosovo U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–17%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–023%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (23%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
11%89%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Esperance Tunis or draw
89%
Esperance Tunis or Kosovo U19
72%
Draw or Kosovo U19
38%

Winning margin

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
31%
Kosovo U19 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
75%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
40%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
16%
Kosovo U19 1+ goals
33%
Kosovo U19 2+ goals
6%
Kosovo U19 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
85%
Kosovo U19 (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperance Tunis at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.54 · 41 matches

Kosovo U19 away — creates 0.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperance Tunis attack 1.88 + Kosovo U19 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kosovo U19 attack 0.25 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Esperance Tunis scores more
62%
level
28%
Kosovo U19 scores more
11%

Esperance Tunis at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esperance Tunis vs Kosovo U19

Esperance Tunis and Kosovo U19 drew 0-0 in League #202 on December 22, 2012.

The match was played at Stade Olympique de Radès.